Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked new fears, and it is expected that the Swedes, dragged along by Finland, will reluctantly apply to join the alliance and its collective defence.
TOFTA, Sweden — The Swedish Army’s Gotland Regiment went through its paces practicing the use of its Swedish-developed light anti-tank missiles, the NLAWs, which are proving so effective in Ukraine.
The regiment, revived in 2018 on this strategic island that helps control the air and seaspace of the Baltic Sea, is in the process of being rebuilt with the goal of expanding from the current 400 to 4,000 soldiers – a far cry from the 25,000 who are here served during the Cold War.
In a major reassessment of its security posture sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Sweden is relearning how to be a military power. Driven by its strategic partner Finland, it is on the verge of applying to join NATO, ending more than 200 years of neutrality and military non-alignment.
The new commander of the Gotland Regiment, Col. Magnus Frykvall, has a clear understanding of this mission to rebuild Sweden’s defenses and the importance of the island his regiment is guarding. “If you own Gotland, you can control sea and air movement throughout the southern Baltics,” he said.
Joining NATO is a political decision, said Colonel Frykvall, 47, but he supports it. “Collaboration is one thing, but an alliance is something else,” he said. “An alliance means you have guarantees.”
A parliamentary report presented on Friday by Sweden’s Foreign Minister Ann Linde said its membership in NATO alongside Finland would have a chilling effect on northern Europe, although the analysis also warned that retaliatory action by Russia could not be ruled out during the transition period if Sweden were to lose membership of the Alliance requested.
One of Colonel Frykvall’s troops, Pvt. Sara Karlsson, 20, an artillery specialist, said: “Every soldier here now feels that we are making a difference, and I can feel it in my colleagues too, a new sense of responsibility.”
The world is dangerous and there’s always war somewhere, she said. “But Ukraine is not far from Gotland and we feel that.”
If Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea was a silent wake-up call, its bloody, all-out invasion of Ukraine in February was five-alarm fire.
“We had our dream and now it’s time to wake up,” said Robert Dalsjo, study leader at the Swedish Defense Research Agency. “The dream is over.”
Sentiment in Finland, which has fought two wars against the Soviet Union, has shifted sharply over the past six months in favor of joining NATO led by Sauli Niinisto, its president.
Now nearly 80 percent of Finns support accession, compared to just 20 percent before the war. On Thursday, Mr Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin publicly announced their support for Finland’s proposal, with a parliamentary vote expected on Monday.
“There’s a before and after February 24, the security landscape has completely changed,” she said. “Given the situation, we really need to think about what’s best for Sweden and our peace in this new situation.”
The Swedish public followed suit, with 52 percent now in favor of joining NATO, particularly if Finland joins, compared to around 27 percent before the war.
On Sunday, the Social Democrats will announce their decision after discussions with members from all 26 districts across the country, said Kenneth G. Forslund, a member of the party executive and chairman of parliament’s foreign relations committee. The consensus is that the party will reluctantly support joining NATO alongside Finland.
“We and the Finns belong together,” said former Prime Minister Carl Bildt. “If we were alone outside, we would be a nostalgia museum of the 1960s.”
Few analysts in either country doubt that the two countries will bid jointly and that NATO will be quick to agree. Both Washington and London – Washington quiet, London loud – have issued bilateral security guarantees to both countries while their proposals are being ratified.
For Sweden and Finland, “times have changed,” said Bjorn Fagersten of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. “It’s a new normal, a new world.”
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Stockholm decided that war was a thing of the past. It withdrew almost all of its forces from Gotland, reducing the national army by about 90 percent and the navy and air force by about 70 percent. It was a decision that a retired colonel, Mats Ekeroth, who runs a military museum on Gotland, dismissed as “absolutely idiotic”.
The last time Gotland was attacked was in 1808 – by Russia. The 1,800 Russians were expelled in a month, but as a farewell, Russia tore Finland away from the Swedes. Only six years later, in 1814, Sweden fought its last war.
So, Russia has always been a burgeoning presence in the Nordic countries. Russia’s Kaliningrad fleet is only 200 miles away, as are its nuclear-capable Iskander missiles.
“The suspicion of Russia goes back a long way, about 700 years,” said Niklas Granholm, also of the Swedish Defense Research Agency. He added: “This war against Ukraine will be remembered for a few generations that Russia is really like that.”
People were frozen even before the invasion, when Russian President Vladimir V Putin warned Sweden and Finland of “retaliation” if they join NATO.
“Putin’s direct threats had the opposite effect,” Mr Dalsjo said. “The perceived threat level has really gone up,” which has pushed both nations to join NATO.
Sweden’s international reputation is characterized by neutrality, peacekeeping, nuclear disarmament, gender equality and a “feminist foreign policy”. Swedes in general, as Mr. Bildt joked, “regard us as the enlightened voice of humanity.”
Russia-Ukraine War: Key Developments
But his changes aren’t as sudden as they seem. Even under Olof Palme, whose harsh criticism of the Vietnam War angered Washington, Sweden had a working relationship with Moscow but also a close, quiet, bilateral defense relationship with the United States.
It was a secret relationship known as “the hidden alliance” for many years, although it was revealed to Moscow by a prominent Swedish spy. As Mr. Bildt said: “It was a policy known to the Russians but not to the Swedes.”
Fighting for nuclear disarmament and peace while trying to build “bridges” to Moscow did not conflict with ensuring Sweden’s defense capability with American and British assistance.
In fact, while Sweden encourages disarmament, it is tacitly one of the world’s largest arms manufacturers per capita, with key companies such as Saab making fighter jets and Bofors, now part of Britain’s BAE Systems.
Sweden also became a major arms exporter; In 2021 its defense industry exported $2 billion worth of arms, although sales to dictatorships or countries at war were restricted – Ukraine is now a major exception.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, both Sweden and Finland moved closer to the West and gave up their neutrality to apply to join the European Union in 1992 and NATO’s Partnership for Peace program in 1994, while remaining militarily non-aligned. Both countries take part in NATO exercises.
But even if Russia considers both countries de facto part of the Western alliance, defense cooperation and pledges are not guarantees — certainly not of the kind provided by NATO’s Article 5, which commits member states to collective defence.
“Basically, we paid the cost but without the benefits of Article 5 and we didn’t fool Russia,” Mr Fagersten said. “We were as closely associated with NATO as only a non-member could be.”
But the forthcoming decision has sparked fear among many Swedes, who fear membership of a nuclear alliance will limit Sweden’s ability to push for nuclear disarmament, arms control and peaceful settlement of disputes.
“That’s not how you create peace and security,” said Gabriella Irsten of the Swedish Peace and Arbitration Society, which strongly condemns the Russian invasion but opposes NATO membership. “You create safety together with your enemy – if your enemy is not safe, you are not.”
Non-alignment has served Sweden well “and protected us,” she said, so dropping it now seems wrong.
“I also think it would be a loss of our history,” she said. “We’ve been working on making peace for so long and now that’s going to be thrown in the trash without any real discussion and with all this fear.”
Both the Greens and the Left Party reject NATO membership for similar reasons.
Green Party’s Marta Stenevi said the Russian invasion meant “a reassessment of our defense and security positions”, but called for better Swedish defense and closer cooperation with NATO rather than membership “which comes with certain obligations”, such as zu go war in a crisis does not choose them.
And then there is the frightening possibility of former President Trump returning to power, she said.
“We want to actively participate in the crises we choose,” Ms. Stenevi said. “Keeping a strong voice for peace and democracy is easier outside of the alliance.”
Christine Anderson Contributed reporting from Bastad, Sweden, and Johanna Lemola from Helsinki, Finland.
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