India, the world’s second-largest wheat producer, has banned exports of the grain with some exceptions, a move that could add to a global deficit made worse by the war in Ukraine and an already grim prognosis for global hunger world could aggravate.
The war disrupted wheat production in Ukraine and Russia, which are major suppliers. Fighting and blockades in the Black Sea have disrupted grain transportation. And poor harvests in China, combined with a heatwave in India and droughts elsewhere, have further impacted global supply.
India has about 10 percent of the world’s grain reserves, according to the United States Department of Agriculture, a large surplus attributed to heavily subsidizing its farmers. For months, it has been considered a country that could help offset global supply shortages.
The wheat export ban, announced in a Commerce Ministry note on Friday, appeared to be a reversal of previous statements by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India’s leader told President Biden in April the country was ready to feed the world from its reserves. He also urged domestic wheat producers to seize the opportunity, saying Indian officials and financial institutions should support exporters.
But agriculture experts said a prolonged heatwave and rising temperatures could affect this year’s harvest, which could be one reason the government changed course and imposed an export ban.
The Commerce Ministry’s notice on Friday said wheat exports were immediately banned, with some exceptions, because a sudden surge in crop prices had threatened India’s food security. Limited exports will be allowed at the request of individual governments whose own food supplies are at risk, the statement said.
The export ban could be another blow to international organizations working to combat the growing threat of widespread hunger. The World Food Programme, a United Nations agency, has warned that another 47 million people could go hungry as the effects of the war add to an existing crisis of soaring food prices and fertilizer shortages.
In early May, the agency’s chief economist Arif Husain said it was in talks with India to tap into its stockpiles to alleviate shortages. He also said the World Food Program has urged nations not to impose export bans because it could raise prices and reduce availability. “Hopefully countries will listen,” he said.
Ashok Gulati, a well-known agricultural economist in India, said the ministry’s announcement reflects badly on India as it contradicts the government’s previous statements that it would supply wheat to countries in need.
“If there is a global surge, you can tame it by opening borders instead of closing them,” Mr Gulati said.
The move is also likely to be unpopular with India’s farmers.
Ranbeer Singh Sirsa, a farmer in Punjab state, said the ban is likely to hit wheat farmers who have benefited from higher prices and demand lately.
“If the price wants to go up, let it level off at the international price,” Mr Sirsa said. “Who are they trying to protect now, at the expense of the farmers?”
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