The war in Russia has caused colossal job and income losses for Ukrainians, destroying nearly a third of all jobs in the country and threatening to lose millions more if the conflict continues, the United Nations Labor Organization said on Wednesday.
Economic upheaval, coupled with a huge refugee outflow and large-scale internal displacement, has wiped out 4.8 million jobs in Ukraine since Russian aggression began, the agency, the International Labor Organization, said in its first report on the economic fallout from the invasion. If the military escalation continues, over 43 percent of jobs – about seven million – could be lost, she added.
The report underscored the heavy economic toll of Russian aggression and the challenges that Ukraine, neighboring countries and the world economy face if the war escalates into a protracted crisis.
Economic activity in Ukraine has essentially ground to a halt across much of the country, forcing the closure of an estimated 50 percent of Ukrainian businesses – a situation made worse by the destruction of buildings, roads, hospitals and other essential property. An estimated $60 billion to $100 billion worth of critical infrastructure was damaged or destroyed in the first month of the conflict alone.
If the invasion is not ended quickly, up to 90 percent of Ukraine’s population could be at risk of poverty or poverty-prone, the organization warned. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecast Tuesday that Ukraine’s economy will shrink by 30 percent this year.
Ukraine’s neighbors are not spared either. Of the more than 5.2 million refugees who have fled hostilities, many have ended up in Hungary, Poland, Moldova, Romania and Slovakia. As these countries work to integrate the newcomers, the prospect of a protracted conflict means refugees could remain in exile longer than expected, putting pressure on labor markets and potentially increasing unemployment in host countries, the ILO said.
Russia’s own economic crisis in the wake of tightened international sanctions is also reaching beyond its borders. The economies of countries like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan that depend on remittances from hundreds of thousands of migrant workers in Russia. Should they lose their jobs and be forced to return to their countries of origin, “there will be severe economic losses in Central Asia as a whole,” the ILO said.
A protracted conflict would continue to rock the global economy through higher commodity prices, especially food and fuel.
“Higher inflation rates will have a negative impact on income and poverty, particularly among the poor who rely on wages as their main source of income,” the organization concluded.
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