An examination of the latest statistics and surveys shows that if we continue on our current course, we will not achieve Biden’s goal.
An additional 1% per week of adults completing their first dose is the lowest since the CDC started tracking these statistics in mid-February.
On May 27 and before, the 7-day moving average for new adults receiving a first vaccination never went below 1.5%.
The problem is that the surge was seemingly temporary and it occurred when we fell far short of Biden’s 70 percent target.
Put simply, the current weekly vaccination rate won’t get us to 70% by July 4th. In just one month through July 4th, the current vaccination rate in the US will be between 67% and 68% of the adult population with at least one dose by Independence Day.
To reach 70% by July 4th, we need to reverse the current downtrend. We must have their first dose on average about 1.6% of the population every week from now through July 4th. This is significantly higher than the vaccination rate this week.
Such a surge is not impossible. With 1.6% taking their first dose each week, that’s actually pretty much what we had May 14-27. This is less than an additional 0.1 points more of the population requiring a first dose per day than the rate that ended during the week ending with the June 3 report.
The problem is that the vaccination rate hasn’t really increased since it was available in April. We only saw rejections pause.
The percentage of people who either received their first dose or would receive it as soon as possible barely rose from 64% to 66% in Kaiser’s survey from late April to late May. It turns out that the most recent vaccination campaigns (e.g. loosening of the mask mandate for vaccinated persons) have not had much in the long run. Mainly they got people who wanted to get vaccinated so that they could get it sooner.
Of course, to hit Biden’s 70 percent goal, some people need to be convinced to get the vaccine within the next month. There is 4% (enough to get just the US 70% if you add the 66% mentioned earlier) who are either on a vaccination appointment or planning to have their first dose in the next three months.
The key for the next month will be making sure these unvaccinated people have a sense of urgency to get their first dose.
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